Are Hispanic Americans Becoming Republicans?

Recently, some data has been released which has caused people to think that Hispanic Americans are going to vote republican in the 2022 and 2024 elections at greater rates than they have in recent history. This would be quite a significant change. Based on NYT exit polling, between 1972 and 2016 the Hispanic vote for democrats never fell below 61%. (Exit polling for 2020 is biased in favor of republicans because so many democrats voted by mail.)

hispanic-american-voting-1972-2016

But according to a recent WJS poll, Hispanics report planning to vote for Biden over Trump by a statistically insignificant one point margin (44% for Biden, 43% for Trump). The same poll finds that 37% of Hispanics would support a generic republican or democrat for congress. This tie would represent a radical departure from 2018 when Hispanics broke for the democrats by 40 points (Krogstad et al., 2018).

Many more Latinos voted for Democrats than Republicans in 2018 U.S. congressional races

The extremity of these results is caused mostly not by Hispanics coming over to republicans but by them abstaining from favoring democrats. Similarly, according to Gallup polling, the Party ID of Hispanics was inline with expectations in early 2021 but over the course of last year a modest move away from democrats, but not to republicans, was evident (Newport, 2022).

This is consistent with favorability data showing that over the course of 2021 Biden’s favorability fell among Hispanics from nearly 70% to just below 50% (Skelley, 2021).

So multiple sources seem to indicate that Hispanics are moving away from the Democrat party possibly by so large of a margin that they on net wouldn’t benefit either major party. These shifts are so large they more than make up for the usual degree of error in polling for elections a year away (Erikson, 2016).

We might also note that according to an exit poll by Fox, Hispanics voted republican in the Virginia Governor race by a 12 points margin. This too would be a large change relative to historical norms, but these exit polls will be somewhat biased in favor of republicans because a large number of people voted by mail in that election.

Such a change requires an explanation. For years, Republicans have wanted Hispanics to vote republican on the basis of right wing social views, but such social views have been unrelated to how Hispanics have voted (Last, 2018)

(Columns 5 and 6 are Hispanics party ID is being predicted with a positive coefficient indicating the variable is related to increased republicanism, columns 1 and 2 are Asians, 3 and 4 are Whites, 7 and 8 are Blacks).

Religion Regression.jpg

More generally, even among self identified conservatives Hispanics on net have identified as democrat (Last, 2018).

Pol Views - Chart

This has even been true of Hispanics who oppose immigration (Last, 2018).

Immigration - Chart

And historically analyses of support for congressional candidates based on their NumbersUSA grade finds that Hispanics are no more likely to vote for Republicans when Republican politicians are pro-immigration (Hawley, 2013). (A is very anti-immigration, F is very pro-immigration).

Against this background, a shift in Hispanic voting seems surprising. A point to raise in favor of skepticism is that the GOP currently has a rather ambiguous existence and there’s not a strong sense of what they are about or who they are best represented by. The departure of Trump has also made it harder for the media to constantly engage in plausible intense negative coverage of the GOP. These numbers might move back towards the norm once the GOP takes a more concrete form.

It’s also worth noting that there hasn’t been any historical analysis of how Hispanic voting relates to COVID since it is a new issue. According to some polling, COVID is now the top issue for minorities. But polling shows only 24% of Hispanic Americans disapprove of how Biden has dealt with COVID policy.

Critical Race Theory is also a new issue, kinda. At least, it being talked about a lot in those terms is new. YouGov polling finds that, among those who know what Critical Race Theory is, 53% of Hispanics have an unfavorable view of it compared to 22% of Blacks. Past research on how Hispanic Americans feel about affirmative action and related policies has produced mixed results, so it is not that shockingly that they might oppose CRT. Moreover, while Hispanics who are right wing on issues like abortion, immigration, and gay marriage still vote democrat Hispanics who are right wing on race do not (Last, 2018).

Affirmative Action - Chart

Evidence on how economically right wing Hispanics vote has been mixed, it depends on the specific question being asked. But satisfaction with the economy is usually important in how people vote. Gallup finds economic satisfaction fell a good deal in the last year. And YouGov polling indicates only 29% of Hispanics think the economy is getting better. Dissatisfaction with the economy might explain why Hispanics seem to be moving away from democrats more than moving to republicans.

If I had to guess, I’d say that the polling data probably is overstating the change in Hispanic voting but that a more moderate change has occurred and that the most probable explanation is some combination of racial politics and the economy. However, figuring out how groups will vote is hard and finding out why they vote the way they do is even harder, so I wouldn’t put much confidence in these conclusions even if I think they are the best guesses based on the data available at this time.

16 thoughts on “Are Hispanic Americans Becoming Republicans?

    • Okay, but making up their own minds based on what? That’s the point. It’s not like Republicans didn’t try to appeal on issues like abortion and other social issues before.

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      • Making up their own minds on how best to get more gibs from whitey. They’re in a competition with blacks to get gibs from whitey, and them starting to vote Republican is nothing but a symptom of that.

        Don’t pay attention to him. He’s just some day-1 “Democrats are the real racists” lolbert. His opinion means nothing and isn’t worth consideration.

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    • they vote democrat because many hate white people and see the republican party as the white party so voting democrat is their way of voting against white people. i don’t necessarily agree the GOP is the party in the way they think it is but its their mindset

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  1. The Democratic Party, and the American regime in general, has become so extremely radical, so hedonist-envyist (communist) and anti-nobility/virtue/order/merit (anti-traditional values), that one does not have to be truly “conservative” to oppose this monstrosity. One need only be opposed to this country heading straight off a cliff. On the other side, much of the Republican Party is only marginally less radical, comparable to the Democratic Party of the 1990s or later. Being a Republican at this time hardly signifies that one is truly conservative or interested in sustaining Aryan civilization. How many Mestizos are active in the America First movement to restore nationalism to the Republican Party?

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  2. Funny enough, my aunt came here on an overstayed visa and lucked out by marrying a native. In 2016 they were both anti-Trump but in 2020 they started vocally and passionately supporting him. I think part of it is that immigration is becoming less of a dividing/focal issue as immigration to the USA is slowing down.

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  3. In the USA, there are only two political races that matter. White and Black. Libtards thought that they could forcibly slot Latinx pepo into the politically Black category, but Latinx don’t want to be Black.

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    • To be more accurate, hispanics are in a competition with blacks for gibs from whitey. This whole thing about them starting to vote Republican isn’t anything but that.

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